Performance & decision grading

4-week tranche results. 343 graded reports.

Reports are generated at Friday close. Trades execute at Monday open. Grading measures Monday open to Monday open 4 weeks later (one tranche). Historical simulation using Yahoo Finance real price data. Portfolio returns blend the active 4 tranches each week. Official live tracking began 2026-06-26. Live report: 2026-08-07.

CAGR (20202026)
+76%
vs SPY +14%
Sharpe ratio
1.47
vs SPY 0.77
Max drawdown
-40%
worst peak-to-trough decline. vs SPY -32%
Weekly win rate
+59%
343 weekly portfolio returns
Since tracked · 2026-06-26 · 5 graded weeks
Total return (since tracked)
-0.1%
cumulative since 2026-06-26
Sharpe ratio
needs 20+ weeks
Max drawdown
-2.5%
worst peak-to-trough
Weekly win rate
+40%
5 weekly portfolio returns

Annual returns

YearSystemSPYQQQGLDBTC-USDXLESGOV
2026+14.7%+9.2%+11.1%-8.9%-30.6%+24.4%+0.0%
2025+23.0%+15.1%+18.2%+67.7%-7.0%+7.3%+0.0%
2024+66.5%+27.3%+31.7%+29.4%+123.7%+5.6%-0.0%
2023+31.9%+20.0%+47.0%+7.3%+157.1%-6.3%+0.2%
2022+4.7%-15.6%-27.7%+4.3%-59.2%+44.6%+0.2%
2021+1068.7%+23.3%+18.9%-8.0%+27.7%+60.4%-0.0%
2020+8.2%+17.1%+48.3%+22.6%+342.8%-36.7%+0.0%

Benchmark comparison (full period)

BenchmarkCAGRSharpeMax drawdownWin rate
Hibernot System+75.6%1.47-40.0%+59%
SPY+13.7%0.77-32.2%+61%
QQQ+19.7%0.89-34.5%+59%
GLD+15.1%0.89-25.0%+57%
BTC-USD+38.5%0.86-75.1%+52%
XLE+10.5%0.47-58.5%+56%
SGOV+0.1%0.12-0.6%+66%

Decision 3 — Crypto state machine

Each week is classified into a crypto state: NoCrypto (equity-only), TrendBTC (BTC allocation), AltSeason (BTC + altcoins), or Defensive. The edge is measured as average weekly portfolio return in each state vs the NoCrypto baseline. AltSeason is the single largest alpha driver in the system.

AltSeason
+4.78%
avg/week · 63w
+4.23% vs NoCrypto
NoCrypto
+0.55%
avg/week · 120w
0.00% vs NoCrypto
TrendBTC
+0.45%
avg/week · 150w
-0.10% vs NoCrypto
ValueBTC
+0.24%
avg/week · 10w
-0.31% vs NoCrypto

Edge source: AltSeason is triggered when BTC dominance breaks down, altcoin breadth expands, and macro conditions permit. The state machine gates AltSeason through D4 — it only fires in favourable macro regimes, preventing whipsaws during risk-off periods.

Decision 4 — Macro regime engine

The macro engine classifies each week into a regime using ISM PMI, credit spreads (HYG/SPY), Fed balance sheet, and dollar strength. Portfolio allocation is gated by regime — Goldilocks and Transition/Mixed regimes get full exposure. The alpha is measured as portfolio weekly return minus SPY.

Transition / Mixed
+2.46%/w
96 weeks
Goldilocks
+1.79%/w
52 weeks
Disinflation
+0.83%/w
113 weeks
Late-Cycle Reflation
+0.29%/w
64 weeks
Risk-On Liquidity Expansion
-0.21%/w
10 weeks
Risk-Off Deterioration
-0.30%/w
8 weeks

Edge source: The macro engine correctly identifies market stress before it peaks. During the 47 defensive weeks (COVID crash 2020, bear market 2022), the portfolio earned +0.21%/week while full ETF exposure would have earned only +0.03%/week — a +0.18%/week protection edge. SPY averaged -0.08%/week during defensive periods vs +0.34%/week during normal periods, confirming the trigger fires on genuine weakness, not false alarms.

Decision 5 — Category ranking quality (4W average)

10 asset categories are ranked weekly. Top-2 receive 20% each, ranks 3–8 receive 10% each, ranks 9–10 receive 0%. Top-2 beats mid-6 by +0.51%/4W and bottom-2 by +1.29%/4W across 340 graded weeks. This spread is the core allocation edge.

Top-2 (20% each)
+1.96%
avg 4W return (343 weeks)
Ranks 3–8 (10%)
+1.45%
avg 4W return (343 weeks)
Ranks 9–10 (0%)
+0.67%
avg 4W return (343 weeks)
Report dateStateTranche 4WTop-23–89–10SPYGLDBTC
2026-07-24NoCrypto+0.61%-1.01%-2.84%
2026-07-17NoCrypto-0.29%+1.66%+1.01%
2026-07-10NoCrypto-0.72%-1.34%+1.45%
2026-07-03NoCrypto-3.76%-5.05%-0.60%+0.56%+0.50%-1.96%+0.32%
2026-06-26NoCrypto+0.37%-2.08%+2.18%+1.39%+1.66%+2.60%+6.77%
2026-06-19NoCrypto-7.97%-11.66%-4.63%-6.53%-1.49%-3.56%-5.88%
2026-06-12NoCrypto-3.45%-4.96%-6.52%+0.26%-0.55%-3.81%-3.76%
2026-06-05NoCrypto+1.33%+2.79%-2.41%+2.41%+1.14%+0.50%+3.90%
2026-05-29NoCrypto-5.96%-5.48%-8.77%+0.77%-1.59%-3.01%-14.05%
2026-05-22NoCrypto-1.86%+2.27%-7.05%+0.97%+0.71%-1.28%-4.42%
2026-05-15NoCrypto+1.94%+11.77%-3.64%+5.36%+1.38%-1.11%-0.58%
2026-05-08NoCrypto-2.11%+10.51%-6.38%-1.22%+0.46%-3.31%-5.74%
2026-05-01NoCrypto+3.32%+17.26%-0.54%+2.78%+2.27%+3.66%+4.58%
2026-04-24NoCrypto+5.12%+15.33%+1.81%+2.36%+0.97%-2.97%-0.15%
2026-04-17NoCrypto+2.56%+18.41%-2.67%-3.74%+0.62%-2.59%+6.51%
2026-04-10NoCrypto+3.82%+27.47%+1.69%+0.57%+4.63%+1.92%+4.38%
2026-04-03NoCrypto+4.10%+24.69%+1.40%+0.75%+3.29%+1.38%+2.57%
2026-03-27NoCrypto+4.08%+22.00%+2.31%+4.97%+2.46%+2.22%+4.59%
2026-03-20NoCrypto+5.59%+6.65%+7.34%+8.22%-2.73%+3.56%-2.78%
2026-03-13NoCrypto-0.88%-5.84%-1.34%+1.05%-1.54%-12.17%-6.81%
2026-03-06NoCrypto-3.05%-4.77%-2.93%+2.68%+0.30%-1.46%+10.35%
2026-02-27NoCrypto-6.56%-9.06%-6.78%-5.57%-1.81%-4.49%+0.36%
2026-02-20NoCrypto-7.00%-6.75%-8.90%-5.69%-1.33%+3.26%-2.86%
2026-02-13NoCrypto-2.39%-3.80%-1.09%-4.33%+1.13%+5.42%-1.62%
2026-02-06NoCrypto-3.34%-4.55%-1.72%-7.00%-1.35%-2.41%-2.08%
2026-01-30NoCrypto+8.08%-2.47%+8.06%+4.22%-0.02%+6.31%-8.74%
2026-01-23NoCrypto-0.82%+0.15%-4.01%+6.86%-0.13%-7.02%-11.09%
2026-01-16NoCrypto+0.02%-0.34%-1.59%+7.18%+1.32%+6.89%-7.57%
2026-01-09NoCrypto+1.80%+0.14%+4.22%+7.10%-1.33%+3.60%+3.12%
2026-01-02NoCrypto+7.07%+1.40%+9.90%+3.51%+0.60%+3.72%-0.64%
2025-12-26NoCrypto+19.81%-2.37%+23.03%+6.26%-0.15%+0.68%+4.07%
2025-12-19NoCrypto+14.27%-1.32%+16.82%+5.04%+0.53%-0.82%-0.89%
2025-12-12NoCrypto+12.54%+0.84%+12.89%+0.86%-0.26%+2.32%+0.51%
2025-12-05NoCrypto+9.53%+1.37%+8.48%+0.08%-0.12%+2.78%-2.49%
2025-11-28NoCrypto+5.91%+1.60%+4.98%-1.57%+1.15%-0.92%+0.04%
2025-11-21NoCrypto+7.62%+8.16%+6.95%+0.02%+2.43%+4.20%+4.14%
2025-11-14TrendBTC+1.29%+2.96%+8.25%+2.18%-1.05%+0.22%-7.84%
2025-11-07TrendBTC-6.07%+1.74%+0.62%+1.37%-1.11%-0.50%-10.07%
2025-10-31TrendBTC-9.88%-5.88%-2.13%+3.03%-1.23%+1.90%-5.35%
2025-10-24TrendBTC-15.28%-7.81%-6.61%-3.97%+0.43%-0.60%-3.35%
2025-10-17TrendBTC-8.71%-0.79%-3.97%-1.77%+2.31%-6.62%+5.35%
2025-10-10TrendBTC-5.74%+4.48%-3.50%+1.46%+1.01%+5.56%-5.64%
2025-10-03TrendBTC-4.33%+5.82%+0.69%+1.02%-1.63%+3.96%-6.76%
2025-09-26TrendBTC+2.81%+6.01%+3.17%+2.84%+1.09%+2.95%+10.16%
2025-09-19TrendBTC+0.54%+0.42%+7.43%+1.27%+0.33%+2.64%-2.77%
2025-09-12TrendBTC+4.49%+3.87%+9.04%-0.64%+0.39%+1.91%-0.08%
2025-09-05TrendBTC+10.98%+7.87%+9.61%+3.40%+1.70%+0.79%+3.81%
2025-08-29TrendBTC+6.42%+10.22%+9.78%+5.59%+1.74%+4.00%+2.71%
2025-08-22TrendBTC+5.26%+6.83%+7.07%-0.44%-1.02%+3.60%-4.61%
2025-08-15TrendBTC+2.56%+1.50%+8.06%+2.46%+0.18%+0.61%-3.40%
2025-08-08TrendBTC-2.09%+0.28%+3.83%-0.29%+0.85%-0.27%-1.55%
2025-08-01TrendBTC-1.67%-0.94%+4.62%-0.57%+1.88%-0.70%+4.45%
2025-07-25TrendBTC-1.87%-0.99%+1.33%+1.15%-1.85%+1.42%-4.38%
2025-07-18TrendBTC-0.20%+1.53%-1.18%+1.35%+1.39%-1.74%+1.83%
2025-07-11TrendBTC+2.46%+3.50%+2.93%+2.18%+0.90%+0.91%-1.52%
2025-07-04TrendBTC+1.84%+1.49%-1.25%+1.30%-0.03%+1.31%+9.05%
2025-06-27TrendBTC+7.02%+3.78%+2.97%+4.89%+0.97%+0.89%+0.79%
2025-06-20TrendBTC+11.91%+10.26%+5.42%+5.44%+3.75%-2.56%+7.32%
2025-06-13TrendBTC+7.96%+8.10%+1.63%+1.03%-0.89%-1.42%-4.33%
2025-06-06TrendBTC+3.90%+8.73%+3.59%+1.43%+0.11%+3.08%-0.22%
2025-05-30TrendBTC+4.30%+13.39%+6.12%+2.07%+2.03%-1.24%+0.14%
2025-05-23TrendBTC-1.96%+5.76%+4.85%+0.50%+0.29%+1.78%-3.09%
2025-05-16TrendBTC+3.70%+5.83%+11.84%+0.13%-0.35%+2.00%+2.44%
2025-05-09TrendBTC+2.84%+3.83%+5.17%-0.12%+1.14%-0.16%+2.23%
2025-05-02TrendBTC+9.56%+7.33%+8.16%+3.86%+3.36%-2.48%+10.38%
2025-04-25TrendBTC+12.26%+9.53%+9.43%+4.07%+2.03%+0.58%+0.60%
2025-04-18TrendBTC+16.58%+17.68%+8.15%+3.93%+5.80%-3.45%+10.08%
2025-04-11TrendBTC+15.26%+11.58%+6.11%+6.05%-4.21%+6.59%+1.76%
2025-04-04TrendBTC+18.23%+21.49%+14.26%+12.18%+11.21%+5.98%+7.00%
2025-03-28TrendBTC+7.65%+3.79%-0.04%+4.50%-11.03%-3.02%-5.00%
2025-03-21TrendBTC-2.19%-9.64%-5.61%-1.92%-3.67%+3.09%-4.34%
2025-03-14TrendBTC-0.69%-6.03%-3.88%-4.02%+1.42%+1.22%+4.23%
2025-03-07TrendBTC-5.35%-15.75%-10.83%-7.71%-0.85%+2.96%+2.46%
2025-02-28TrendBTC-7.41%-11.64%-0.82%+2.44%-4.80%+0.96%-14.48%
2025-02-21TrendBTC-6.11%-4.92%+0.94%-1.24%-0.97%-2.35%-2.11%
2025-02-14TrendBTC-8.82%-10.56%-3.55%-0.42%-1.45%+0.66%+0.10%
2025-02-07TrendBTC-11.65%-8.32%-6.42%-6.61%+1.13%+0.63%-0.33%
2025-01-31TrendBTC-2.07%+0.85%+0.85%-3.81%+1.92%+3.18%-1.21%
2025-01-24TrendBTC-2.87%+2.64%-0.43%+0.90%-0.36%+2.32%-4.87%
2025-01-17TrendBTC-1.66%+3.58%+0.82%-1.61%-0.98%+0.76%+1.58%
2025-01-10TrendBTC+4.50%+6.94%+6.07%+1.94%+4.32%+2.28%+6.98%
2025-01-03TrendBTC-0.19%-3.34%+0.61%-2.18%-3.44%+1.65%-3.89%
2024-12-27TrendBTC+6.62%+0.46%+5.11%-0.86%+1.43%+0.52%+5.12%
2024-12-20TrendBTC+4.37%+0.53%+6.61%+0.37%-0.51%-0.22%-1.65%
2024-12-13TrendBTC-6.59%-5.44%-2.90%-5.32%-2.49%-1.55%-8.82%
2024-12-06TrendBTC-4.13%-4.81%-5.41%-4.45%-0.28%-0.35%+3.02%
2024-11-29TrendBTC-6.50%-2.31%-9.39%-7.57%+0.78%+0.74%+4.07%
2024-11-22TrendBTC-5.80%-4.22%-9.34%-6.64%+0.58%+0.08%-0.77%
2024-11-15TrendBTC+7.29%+3.79%-1.62%+1.35%+2.27%+1.58%+9.12%
2024-11-08TrendBTC+13.50%+4.40%+0.34%+0.47%-2.27%-0.94%+11.65%
2024-11-01TrendBTC+23.55%+9.32%+3.83%+5.91%+5.01%-4.18%+17.06%
2024-10-25TrendBTC+23.95%+6.62%+2.68%+4.90%-1.96%+0.12%+1.21%
2024-10-18TrendBTC+13.09%-2.67%-4.54%-0.96%-0.22%+0.11%-1.56%
2024-10-11TrendBTC+14.90%+2.10%-0.23%+2.66%+0.45%+3.09%+9.79%
2024-10-04TrendBTC+4.32%-0.28%-2.98%-1.78%+1.74%+0.24%+0.05%
2024-09-27TrendBTC+2.59%+3.03%+0.97%-1.20%+0.15%+0.25%-4.29%
2024-09-20TrendBTC+6.55%+3.58%+6.30%-1.28%+0.19%+0.41%+3.13%
2024-09-13TrendBTC+5.55%+6.31%+6.88%-0.30%+1.35%+1.78%+7.53%
2024-09-06TrendBTC+11.82%+9.00%+12.38%+8.95%+3.14%+3.23%+7.90%
2024-08-30TrendBTC+9.12%+1.12%+6.18%+3.07%-2.82%+0.38%-4.32%
2024-08-23TrendBTC+0.43%-1.16%+0.72%+3.33%-0.48%-1.32%-10.90%
2024-08-16TrendBTC+1.43%-0.07%-0.12%+4.29%+1.52%+1.43%+10.02%
2024-08-09TrendBTC-2.98%+0.82%-0.94%+2.79%+3.84%+1.77%-0.41%
2024-08-02TrendBTC+2.61%+14.89%+7.22%+4.06%+4.41%+2.53%+1.05%
2024-07-26TrendBTC-1.35%+5.32%+1.93%+0.35%-6.30%-0.32%-14.87%
2024-07-19TrendBTC-7.01%-0.72%+0.10%+1.41%-1.26%-0.14%+0.16%
2024-07-12TrendBTC-5.02%-7.58%-5.98%-1.32%-1.61%-0.81%+12.07%
2024-07-05TrendBTC-3.69%-15.03%-9.27%-1.82%+1.19%+1.71%+8.89%
2024-06-28TrendBTC+3.67%-4.67%+0.21%+2.67%+1.80%+2.04%-10.89%
2024-06-21TrendBTC+3.96%-2.04%-0.21%+2.62%+0.24%-0.14%-0.79%
2024-06-14TrendBTC-2.61%+2.53%+4.44%+2.38%+0.42%+0.30%-5.20%
2024-06-07TrendBTC-9.86%+8.69%-1.63%+1.73%+1.67%+0.83%-4.32%
2024-05-31TrendBTC-6.19%+6.74%-6.40%-1.46%+0.79%-1.29%+2.79%
2024-05-24TrendBTC-6.36%+4.92%-7.20%-0.69%-0.24%-1.15%-1.11%
2024-05-17TrendBTC-3.11%+12.30%-9.52%-3.33%+0.13%-2.40%+3.37%
2024-05-10TrendBTC+5.23%+1.27%-3.24%-1.68%+1.34%+3.10%+7.86%
2024-05-03TrendBTC+4.36%+2.29%+3.76%+2.82%+1.71%+0.89%-4.04%
2024-04-26TrendBTC+6.48%+7.46%+4.25%+5.74%+0.72%-0.41%+1.48%
2024-04-19TrendBTC+4.92%+6.62%+9.09%+9.91%+2.46%-0.15%-2.82%
2024-04-12TrendBTC-1.61%-0.13%+4.31%+7.20%-3.36%-0.73%-1.22%
2024-04-05TrendBTC-4.04%-1.82%-0.47%+3.86%-0.77%+0.91%-5.22%
2024-03-29TrendBTC-5.13%-3.66%+2.00%+0.96%-0.89%+3.50%-2.76%
2024-03-22TrendBTC-2.03%-8.73%+2.58%-3.49%+0.78%+3.72%+6.10%
2024-03-15TrendBTC+0.33%+0.26%+5.85%+0.59%+1.13%+0.77%-1.66%
2024-03-08TrendBTC+3.19%+0.66%+8.07%+2.44%+0.69%-1.02%-0.94%
2024-03-01TrendBTC+7.56%-0.08%+7.09%+2.36%-0.30%+3.89%+9.32%
2024-02-23TrendBTC+17.09%+3.89%+7.67%+1.99%+0.73%+3.39%+22.05%
2024-02-16TrendBTC+17.29%+4.24%+5.83%+2.15%+2.13%-0.09%-0.78%
2024-02-09TrendBTC+22.51%+2.03%+3.08%+4.62%-0.69%+0.73%+7.95%
2024-02-02TrendBTC+26.25%+8.27%+0.76%+6.00%+1.51%-0.15%+13.43%
2024-01-26TrendBTC+13.16%+6.83%-0.84%+6.06%+1.22%-0.76%+1.30%
2024-01-19TrendBTC+13.82%+3.09%+1.70%+4.99%+0.77%+0.58%+1.15%
2024-01-12TrendBTC+9.10%+6.27%-2.79%+4.15%+1.84%-1.02%-0.39%
2024-01-05TrendBTC+1.15%+12.44%+1.27%+3.83%+1.46%+1.04%-5.08%
2023-12-29TrendBTC+1.57%+8.02%-0.98%+1.16%-0.79%-2.21%+3.95%
2023-12-22TrendBTC-2.28%+3.02%-6.12%+0.45%-0.40%+0.25%-1.70%
2023-12-15TrendBTC+1.04%+1.82%-0.29%+0.46%+0.66%+1.85%+4.02%
2023-12-08TrendBTC+0.38%+0.99%+0.32%+3.07%+2.46%+1.63%-5.58%
2023-12-01TrendBTC+4.34%+3.95%+0.94%+4.85%+0.90%-2.69%+9.54%
2023-11-24TrendBTC+10.56%+8.12%+2.92%+7.90%+0.21%+1.63%+6.74%
2023-11-17TrendBTC+7.79%+5.55%+2.54%+4.88%+0.91%+2.33%+0.21%
2023-11-10TrendBTC+11.82%+4.37%+3.59%+6.36%+2.57%+1.63%+0.82%
2023-11-03TrendBTC+8.64%+6.58%+2.40%+3.89%+0.86%-2.57%+5.78%
2023-10-27TrendBTC+6.97%+13.72%+3.21%+5.41%+5.30%-0.75%+1.49%
2023-10-20TrendBTC+14.57%+13.84%+3.68%+5.33%-1.44%+1.11%+14.57%
2023-10-13TrendBTC+18.30%+5.53%-0.66%-0.68%-3.28%+3.19%+10.96%
2023-10-06TrendBTC+13.98%+1.05%+3.69%+0.35%+1.46%+3.89%-2.76%
2023-09-29TrendBTC+10.15%-3.14%-2.15%-2.03%+0.23%+0.56%-0.15%
2023-09-22TrendBTC+5.95%-2.03%-2.33%-6.61%-0.59%-4.58%+6.56%
2023-09-15TrendBTC-0.61%-1.13%-3.71%-4.43%-3.13%-0.23%-1.05%
2023-09-08TrendBTC+3.19%-4.50%-2.32%-3.84%-1.16%-0.08%+2.71%
2023-09-01TrendBTC+3.73%-5.00%-1.60%-3.68%-0.55%-0.20%-0.53%
2023-08-25TrendBTC+1.63%-2.18%+1.60%-1.75%+1.92%+0.95%-0.47%
2023-08-18TrendBTC+4.01%+3.28%+5.24%+0.85%+1.07%+0.99%-0.38%
2023-08-11TrendBTC-4.33%+4.38%+1.51%-1.91%-1.61%-0.54%-10.57%
2023-08-04TrendBTC-3.97%+1.85%+1.18%-0.95%-0.89%-1.83%+0.84%
2023-07-28TrendBTC-7.53%-4.70%-2.68%-5.92%-1.90%-1.25%-0.82%
2023-07-21TrendBTC-8.33%-5.20%-1.54%-4.48%+0.89%+0.12%-2.67%
2023-07-14TrendBTC-2.70%-5.47%+2.18%-0.49%+0.94%+0.68%-0.56%
2023-07-07TrendBTC-0.26%+2.02%+6.27%+2.31%+2.50%+1.47%+0.26%
2023-06-30TrendBTC-0.14%+4.80%+5.49%+3.13%-1.07%-0.13%-1.48%
2023-06-23TrendBTC+1.54%+5.79%+3.01%+4.33%+2.38%-0.25%+0.47%
2023-06-16TrendBTC+7.81%+3.72%-0.08%+1.83%-1.10%-0.56%+15.74%
2023-06-09TrendBTC+8.35%+1.13%-0.95%+2.94%+1.52%-0.96%+1.55%
2023-06-02TrendBTC+8.48%+5.00%+1.65%+6.65%+0.62%+0.56%-4.38%
2023-05-26TrendBTC+5.15%-1.08%+6.36%+4.69%+1.48%-0.51%-3.39%
2023-05-19ValueBTC+2.43%+12.52%+3.84%+7.18%+0.81%-0.82%+4.96%
2023-05-12ValueBTC-0.31%+11.41%+1.25%+3.73%+1.56%-2.18%-0.67%
2023-05-05ValueBTC-1.36%+11.16%-1.67%+1.72%-0.18%-0.28%-5.34%
2023-04-28ValueBTC-2.30%+11.02%-5.60%-1.07%-0.60%+0.95%-2.66%
2023-04-21ValueBTC-1.58%+5.18%-2.82%-1.89%+0.84%+1.08%+5.93%
2023-04-14ValueBTC-6.39%+0.13%-4.11%+1.07%-0.09%-0.98%-8.99%
2023-04-07ValueBTC+0.66%-1.18%+1.28%+0.11%+1.42%+0.38%+6.99%
2023-03-31ValueBTC+1.52%-2.44%-2.17%+0.67%-0.55%+0.72%+0.54%
2023-03-24ValueBTC+0.68%-1.13%+4.49%+4.92%+2.70%+1.49%+0.68%
2023-03-17ValueBTC+6.03%+1.84%+7.17%+3.97%+1.87%-1.65%-0.17%
2023-03-10NoCrypto+3.30%+7.97%+1.27%+3.83%+2.35%+4.26%+26.56%
2023-03-03NoCrypto-0.51%+1.73%-1.45%+0.75%-5.74%+2.52%-1.25%
2023-02-24NoCrypto-0.70%+5.92%-3.42%-4.00%+1.30%+2.04%-4.77%
2023-02-17NoCrypto-5.24%+1.47%-7.46%-6.40%-0.79%-1.36%-3.19%
2023-02-10NoCrypto-6.03%-4.44%-7.99%-5.36%-1.38%-0.87%+11.70%
2023-02-03NoCrypto+0.84%+1.02%+0.50%+0.50%-0.26%-0.81%-5.08%
2023-01-27NoCrypto-4.20%+2.18%-5.09%-1.82%+1.74%-2.89%-3.45%
2023-01-20NoCrypto-2.24%+4.49%-2.04%+0.25%+1.53%+0.53%+4.64%
2023-01-13NoCrypto-0.53%+8.48%-0.66%-1.34%-0.44%+0.08%+8.81%
2023-01-06NoCrypto+0.65%+12.51%+1.16%-2.49%+2.08%+2.12%+22.16%
2022-12-30NoCrypto+3.54%+8.28%+5.82%-2.78%+1.56%+1.86%+2.82%
2022-12-23NoCrypto+3.46%+9.76%+4.77%-0.83%+0.41%+2.04%-1.29%
2022-12-16NoCrypto+5.58%+4.58%+7.29%+1.21%-0.18%+0.71%+0.50%
2022-12-09NoCrypto+2.93%-2.74%+4.41%-0.88%-2.70%+0.16%-2.01%
2022-12-02NoCrypto-3.96%-6.85%-1.74%-1.63%-2.44%-0.07%-0.15%
2022-11-25NoCrypto-1.43%-6.76%-0.37%-2.55%+1.22%+2.22%+4.19%
2022-11-18NoCrypto+0.13%-2.88%+0.02%+0.50%+1.13%+0.30%+0.91%
2022-11-11NoCrypto-2.32%-0.61%-2.79%-0.53%-0.51%-1.07%-0.37%
2022-11-04Defensive — Inflation/Energy+0.96%+13.31%+3.32%+1.28%+5.02%+5.11%-21.85%
2022-10-28Defensive — Inflation/Energy+3.03%+8.62%+5.28%+4.98%-2.26%+2.67%+1.41%
2022-10-21Defensive — Inflation/Energy+4.11%+8.83%+4.23%+2.81%+2.81%-0.84%+5.45%
2022-10-14Defensive — Inflation/Energy+11.99%+14.84%+10.28%+9.74%+3.26%-0.95%+1.55%
2022-10-07Defensive — Inflation/Energy+8.11%-0.76%+4.98%+6.68%+0.01%-0.65%-0.91%
2022-09-30Defensive — Transition+3.22%+4.47%+5.00%+6.99%+0.80%+0.32%+2.11%
2022-09-23Defensive — Liquidity+3.06%-1.10%+8.05%-7.88%-1.45%+1.45%+1.28%
2022-09-16Defensive — Transition-3.51%-6.27%-0.64%-9.80%-4.15%-1.07%-3.17%
2022-09-09Defensive — Transition-7.97%-12.06%-5.48%-12.47%-6.49%-3.83%-10.80%
2022-09-02Defensive — Transition-5.22%-7.67%-6.40%-8.36%+3.98%+1.17%+8.91%
2022-08-26Defensive — Transition-6.16%-11.81%-11.47%-4.34%-2.26%-1.67%+1.90%
2022-08-19Defensive — Transition-4.05%-12.81%-3.41%-1.95%-3.56%+0.14%-8.90%
2022-08-12NoCrypto-1.56%-8.61%+3.45%-0.68%-1.82%-2.61%-11.46%
2022-08-05NoCrypto-4.12%-11.52%+0.17%+0.02%+2.29%-0.02%+4.91%
2022-07-29NoCrypto-0.40%-4.59%+2.14%+0.05%+1.49%+0.64%-0.67%
2022-07-22NoCrypto+5.56%+4.38%+4.80%+5.65%+3.39%+2.70%+3.23%
2022-07-15NoCrypto+10.27%+12.07%+11.99%+7.06%+1.90%+0.35%+8.78%
2022-07-08Defensive — Transition+4.86%+7.14%+7.07%+7.69%+0.66%-1.14%-0.36%
2022-07-01Defensive — Transition+3.16%+8.04%+7.33%+6.26%+2.65%-3.14%+8.08%
2022-06-24Defensive — Transition-1.15%-0.23%-2.67%+1.59%-3.88%-2.00%-8.23%
2022-06-17Defensive — Transition-1.53%+4.13%-5.80%+4.81%+5.15%-0.27%+2.31%
2022-06-10Defensive — Inflation/Energy-14.89%+0.69%-11.56%-0.06%-2.10%-0.07%-23.13%
2022-06-03Defensive — Inflation/Energy-18.04%-15.81%-15.76%-16.73%-8.42%-0.94%-10.61%
2022-05-27Defensive — Inflation/Energy-15.72%-7.99%-11.93%-14.46%+0.30%+0.06%+1.59%
2022-05-20Defensive — Inflation/Energy-8.75%-5.90%-7.17%-6.10%+5.27%-0.24%-2.86%
2022-05-13Defensive — Liquidity+0.07%-5.99%+0.90%-1.15%-1.79%+2.79%-3.18%
2022-05-06Defensive — Liquidity+2.36%+5.32%+4.73%+6.36%-1.26%-3.35%-8.09%
2022-04-29Defensive — Transition+3.07%+3.19%+4.19%+0.30%-1.69%+0.38%-11.47%
2022-04-22Defensive — Transition-1.49%-9.46%-1.00%-1.85%-2.74%-2.01%-2.53%
2022-04-15Defensive — Inflation/Energy-6.68%-11.51%-15.99%-9.38%-3.01%-4.72%-0.63%
2022-04-08Defensive — Inflation/Energy-3.75%-11.86%-12.17%-11.65%-1.64%+1.52%-5.88%
2022-04-01Defensive — Inflation/Energy-6.79%-12.64%-11.06%-10.48%-1.99%+1.63%-9.14%
2022-03-25Defensive — Inflation/Energy-4.07%-11.03%-5.35%-3.60%+0.24%-0.08%-0.80%
2022-03-18Defensive — Inflation/Energy+7.51%-4.69%+7.18%+5.72%+1.74%+0.59%+13.52%
2022-03-11Defensive — Inflation/Energy+4.68%+2.50%+4.69%+7.61%+5.57%-2.02%+8.98%
2022-03-04Defensive — Inflation/Energy+1.87%+5.87%+0.86%+9.17%-2.47%-0.77%-1.52%
2022-02-25NoCrypto+10.95%+5.21%+11.81%+3.13%-0.11%+3.13%+1.92%
2022-02-18NoCrypto+5.47%+6.70%+8.95%+0.33%+0.03%+0.67%-1.87%
2022-02-11Defensive — Inflation/Energy+7.82%-3.16%+11.36%-6.15%-1.83%+2.24%-8.86%
2022-02-04NoCrypto+5.94%-6.46%+10.66%-4.14%-2.13%+2.56%-0.59%
2022-01-28Defensive — Inflation/Energy+5.64%-1.12%+8.73%-1.07%+1.87%+0.99%+11.83%
2022-01-21NoCrypto+5.99%-1.04%+6.71%+0.79%+2.13%-2.32%+4.53%
2022-01-14NoCrypto+1.05%-8.61%+1.44%-4.26%-6.03%+1.26%-15.87%
2022-01-07NoCrypto-0.38%-4.45%-0.41%-2.85%-0.64%+1.36%+2.88%
2021-12-31TrendBTC-12.26%-12.30%-2.20%-4.07%-2.86%-0.89%-11.48%
2021-12-24TrendBTC-15.08%-13.27%-2.39%-1.30%+0.90%-0.06%-6.81%
2021-12-17TrendBTC+0.40%+1.54%+8.68%+1.92%+3.87%+0.64%+8.77%
2021-12-10AltSeason-8.27%-5.89%+3.46%+2.98%-3.34%+0.59%-6.80%
2021-12-03AltSeason-3.81%+4.52%+2.18%+2.22%+3.08%+0.46%+1.42%
2021-11-26AltSeason-0.72%+2.32%-0.46%-2.77%-1.71%-0.42%-13.75%
2021-11-19AltSeason-13.57%-5.81%-5.91%-8.01%-1.45%-1.80%-2.41%
2021-11-12AltSeason-16.54%+3.07%-7.05%-6.17%+0.48%-2.41%-10.40%
2021-11-05AltSeason-14.87%-4.71%-8.23%-5.96%-0.23%+2.15%+3.44%
2021-10-29AltSeason-1.45%+4.30%-2.61%-0.31%+2.04%+1.82%+3.30%
2021-10-22AltSeason+5.66%+9.47%-4.06%+1.94%+1.33%-0.76%+0.70%
2021-10-15AltSeason+26.21%+11.81%+3.50%+0.99%+2.32%+1.96%-1.06%
2021-10-08AltSeason+37.90%+14.39%+7.47%+3.32%+1.56%+0.84%+12.45%
2021-10-01AltSeason+11.21%+7.39%+5.35%+1.62%+0.96%+0.21%+13.54%
2021-09-24AltSeason+26.49%-0.37%+10.76%+1.29%-2.22%-0.10%+11.51%
2021-09-17AltSeason+6.27%+1.05%+13.22%+3.69%+1.82%-0.27%-8.52%
2021-09-10AltSeason-10.07%-5.89%+1.60%-3.44%-3.07%-1.89%+2.61%
2021-09-03AltSeason+8.63%-7.23%+2.44%-3.95%-0.90%-1.24%-11.03%
2021-08-27AltSeason+22.45%+1.08%+3.89%-0.75%+0.39%-0.06%+6.01%
2021-08-20AltSeason+55.63%+2.85%+2.93%-0.27%+1.31%+0.50%-0.93%
2021-08-13AltSeason+115.73%+4.21%+8.13%+2.15%+0.14%+1.25%+4.83%
2021-08-06AltSeason+141.37%+2.81%+6.72%+0.24%+0.47%+2.28%+7.37%
2021-07-30AltSeason+89.08%+4.23%+0.73%+0.65%+0.48%-3.72%+9.73%
2021-07-23TrendBTC+19.47%+1.29%-1.79%+5.34%+0.23%+0.43%+12.78%
2021-07-16TrendBTC+26.59%+5.80%+4.11%+4.87%+3.08%-0.55%+11.27%
2021-07-09AltSeason+8.09%+3.17%-2.73%+3.99%-2.12%+0.48%-7.16%
2021-07-02AltSeason-1.33%+2.14%-4.08%+2.46%+0.38%-0.34%-2.92%
2021-06-25AltSeason-7.02%-0.62%-2.52%-2.08%+1.55%+1.55%+1.75%
2021-06-18AltSeason-12.13%+0.22%-0.72%+1.17%+2.49%+0.10%-2.70%
2021-06-11AltSeason-8.51%+4.71%-1.01%-2.35%-1.80%-3.83%-8.65%
2021-06-04TrendBTC-1.33%+6.97%-3.81%-3.11%+0.44%-2.15%+8.88%
2021-05-28TrendBTC-2.56%+4.04%-1.96%-0.25%+0.00%-1.01%+0.50%
2021-05-21TrendBTC+0.62%+4.19%-2.96%+1.21%+1.25%+1.48%+2.76%
2021-05-14TrendBTC-7.11%+7.97%+1.55%+2.71%+0.47%+1.64%-25.24%
2021-05-07AltSeason-3.13%+2.22%-1.06%+2.68%-1.68%+0.32%-20.32%
2021-04-30AltSeason-18.13%+0.29%+4.91%+4.15%+0.73%+3.06%+2.88%
2021-04-23AltSeason-23.87%-4.95%+3.41%+0.83%+0.48%+0.59%+15.37%
2021-04-16AltSeason+24.30%-6.73%+5.88%-2.43%+0.28%+0.43%-12.66%
2021-04-09AltSeason+33.66%-3.70%+10.43%+2.44%+1.32%+1.95%-6.62%
2021-04-02AltSeason+48.57%-0.89%+2.98%+2.07%+1.83%+0.75%+2.41%
2021-03-26AltSeason+83.48%+6.07%+3.34%-0.09%+2.30%+0.04%+5.03%
2021-03-19AltSeason+63.56%+7.75%+1.65%-0.24%+1.12%-0.50%-2.73%
2021-03-12AltSeason+45.16%+8.55%-1.80%-1.54%-1.09%-0.02%-2.95%
2021-03-05AltSeason+37.87%+9.37%+2.94%+5.86%+2.51%+2.35%+15.82%
2021-02-26AltSeason+18.84%-4.51%-0.37%+3.75%-0.24%-2.73%+13.32%
2021-02-19AltSeason+14.13%-6.93%+0.39%+2.02%-0.38%-3.27%-21.51%
2021-02-12AltSeason+32.57%-10.31%+1.86%-3.54%-1.75%+0.24%+18.15%
2021-02-05AltSeason+56.04%-7.73%+7.29%-5.65%+1.20%-2.23%+25.23%
2021-01-29AltSeason+108.50%+4.10%+12.49%-2.15%+4.16%-1.74%+17.43%
2021-01-22AltSeason+108.20%+1.53%+11.51%-1.22%-2.59%+0.11%+2.57%
2021-01-15TrendBTC+22.70%+8.14%+7.99%+1.82%+1.41%+1.22%-9.80%
2021-01-08AltSeason+49.03%+3.02%+4.04%+0.77%+0.13%+0.33%-6.66%
2021-01-01AltSeason+49.75%+1.18%+0.08%-0.53%+0.68%-5.40%+16.87%
2020-12-25AltSeason+94.37%+6.31%+7.00%+2.18%+0.96%+2.66%+24.85%
2020-12-18AltSeason+78.26%+8.34%+9.66%+7.60%+1.85%+0.55%+11.95%
2020-12-11AltSeason+63.04%+8.81%+3.85%+5.05%-1.00%+2.55%+22.62%
2020-12-04AltSeason+9.91%+6.14%+6.29%+2.78%-0.10%-0.38%-1.03%
2020-11-27AltSeason-11.52%+11.72%+10.75%+5.97%+1.71%+3.53%+6.41%
2020-11-20AltSeason-9.29%+10.52%+4.78%+6.57%+1.55%-4.81%-1.04%
2020-11-13AltSeason-7.01%+5.64%+12.83%+7.57%-1.02%-1.20%+15.13%
2020-11-06AltSeason-3.14%+6.64%+13.66%-1.32%-0.82%+0.46%+3.07%
2020-10-30AltSeason+17.56%+13.45%+18.38%+5.10%+10.23%-0.58%+12.69%
2020-10-23AltSeason+15.83%+5.61%+10.43%+9.58%-3.49%-0.73%+5.42%
2020-10-16AltSeason-1.75%+0.27%+8.68%+4.72%-1.87%-0.37%+13.36%
2020-10-09AltSeason-2.52%+2.58%+4.59%+7.41%-0.27%-0.64%+0.90%
2020-10-02AltSeason-18.73%-0.85%-1.05%+0.36%+4.03%+0.87%+6.71%
2020-09-25AltSeason-19.59%+3.53%+2.57%+5.57%+0.85%+1.81%-0.93%
2020-09-18AltSeason-8.57%+11.11%+1.56%+6.61%+2.31%-2.23%-1.45%
2020-09-11AltSeason-11.22%+8.37%-2.72%+5.40%-3.49%-2.03%+5.87%
2020-09-04AltSeason-9.31%+3.97%-6.09%+3.46%+0.23%+2.27%+0.46%
2020-08-28AltSeason-16.63%-2.59%-8.96%-1.21%-3.89%-2.86%-12.23%
2020-08-21AltSeason-7.98%-6.38%-3.47%-0.63%+2.41%+1.03%+0.43%
2020-08-14TrendBTC-8.48%+0.56%-6.29%+0.57%+1.24%-0.96%-1.95%
2020-08-07AltSeason+6.42%-1.69%-3.64%+0.18%+0.86%-3.40%+2.00%
2020-07-31TrendBTC+5.68%+2.77%+6.78%+1.30%+2.05%+3.32%+5.60%
2020-07-24NoCrypto+4.33%+4.92%+2.84%+1.69%+2.08%+1.76%+11.49%
2020-07-17NoCrypto+9.45%+7.18%+10.97%+2.60%+0.06%+6.49%+7.82%
2020-07-10NoCrypto+13.63%+1.75%+12.98%+4.11%+0.41%+0.28%-0.97%
2020-07-03NoCrypto+3.60%+4.31%+3.06%+3.21%+1.19%+1.51%+2.25%
2020-06-26NoCrypto+7.83%+6.47%+8.64%+8.53%+4.96%+0.71%-0.74%
2020-06-19NoCrypto+3.66%+4.61%+4.68%+6.17%-2.14%+0.91%-1.73%
2020-06-12NoCrypto+6.59%+12.73%+3.21%+5.37%+3.35%+2.83%-0.91%
2020-06-05NoCrypto-3.05%+3.00%-5.93%-7.49%-6.93%+1.02%-3.83%
2020-05-29NoCrypto-1.62%+0.08%-2.04%+0.34%+5.47%-2.47%+3.13%
2020-05-22NoCrypto+3.17%+3.88%+2.77%+5.41%+0.56%+0.21%+7.71%
2020-05-15NoCrypto+3.74%+3.04%+5.81%+4.56%+3.03%-1.06%-9.19%
2020-05-08NoCrypto+12.47%+9.88%+16.53%+13.56%+0.93%+2.49%+10.51%
2020-05-01NoCrypto+11.12%+17.03%+9.18%+8.00%+3.42%+0.01%-1.58%
2020-04-24Defensive — Monetary/Gold+3.07%+8.05%+7.62%-0.74%-1.54%-0.96%+15.84%
2020-04-17NoCrypto+3.63%+5.66%+4.91%-3.09%+0.89%+2.06%+6.85%
2020-04-10Defensive — Monetary/Gold+6.29%+10.89%+11.02%-1.91%+1.97%-0.35%+3.18%
2020-04-03Defensive — Monetary/Gold+6.40%+8.52%+7.90%+9.01%+7.49%+3.25%+2.62%
2020-03-27Defensive — Monetary/Gold+8.25%+12.58%+9.38%+8.30%+0.84%+1.15%+14.56%
2020-03-20Defensive — Transition+16.94%+24.98%+24.57%+21.72%+12.06%+6.82%+1.61%
2020-03-13Defensive — Transition+11.88%+17.78%+19.81%+7.90%-5.39%+3.72%+8.28%
2020-03-06TrendBTC-11.68%-2.08%-9.55%-11.88%-12.39%-13.27%-33.61%
2020-02-28TrendBTC-23.53%-12.40%-18.87%-29.53%-7.68%+5.73%-5.28%
2020-02-21TrendBTC-34.72%-24.99%-34.55%-29.30%-7.71%-5.36%-13.69%
2020-02-14TrendBTC-36.93%-25.58%-31.68%-26.94%-3.97%+5.75%-0.15%
2020-02-07TrendBTC-17.23%-16.53%-17.38%-13.20%+1.59%+1.13%-1.77%
2020-01-31TrendBTC-7.66%-4.18%-8.56%-8.27%+2.44%-0.30%+8.25%
2020-01-24TrendBTC+7.32%-0.90%-1.31%-0.67%+0.10%-0.39%+8.69%
2020-01-17TrendBTC+7.29%+3.28%-2.68%+1.25%-2.38%+2.38%-1.23%
2020-01-10NoCrypto-0.20%+1.76%-4.60%+0.68%+1.38%-0.40%+6.29%
2020-01-03NoCrypto-1.84%+1.37%-5.21%-2.26%+1.84%-1.41%+10.52%

Scroll to see all 343 graded weeks

Decision 6 — ETF winner selection (4W grading)

For each category: did the selected ETF beat the average return of its two peers over 4 weeks? The primary metric is Edge 4W — the average excess return of the selected ETF versus the peer average. Positive edge = the selection adds return. Sorted by edge, largest first.

Categories with positive edge (4W)
5 / 10
Avg edge vs peers (4W)
+0.12%
CategoryWin rate 4WWinner avg 4WPeer avg 4WEdge 4W
Industrial Metals57%+2.14%+1.32%+0.82%
AI55%+2.29%+1.58%+0.71%
Nuclear Energy49%+2.26%+1.74%+0.52%
Utilities & Infrastructure52%+1.14%+0.81%+0.33%
Technology49%+1.64%+1.40%+0.24%
Precious Metals50%+1.57%+1.60%-0.03%
Defense & Aerospace47%+1.22%+1.38%-0.16%
Agriculture & Livestock47%+0.17%+0.51%-0.34%
Traditional Energy49%+1.35%+1.76%-0.41%
Emerging Markets50%+0.21%+0.69%-0.48%

Overlay state distribution

Defensive weeks are broken into sub-states by the cause-matching selector. NoCrypto = Normal (100% categories). BTC states = 50% crypto overlay. Defensive = 50% cause-matched asset.

StateWeeks% of time
TrendBTC15043%
NoCrypto8224%
AltSeason6318%
Defensive — Inflation/Energy196%
Defensive — Transition144%
ValueBTC103%
Defensive — Monetary/Gold41%
Defensive — Liquidity31%